Bold Predictions

All right, with the mighty Bombers flying high in the pre-season cup, the time is upon us to gaze into the crystal ball and try to pluck this year's chumps and champions. Regular readers (all one of you) may recall my tremendous foresight in picking Geelong (that ragtag cluster of misfits best known for their extended premiership drought), for glory this time last year. On the back of this, I managed to win my regular tipping competition, see the magnificent Tasmanian Tigers win their first ever Sheffield Shield AND the Ford Whatever-it-is Cup, impregnate my wife again, see the back of John Howard and (hopefully) win a Nobel Prize. I'm not even fussy about which one, any will do. That just the sort of bloke I am, humble to a fault.

Anyway, with this form, I'm tipping that at least three people are eagerly anticipating my forecast for this year. First, I shall put the kiss of death on the Essendon Football Club and tip them for pre-season glory! HURRAH!

See the Bombers fly up, up!

To win the premiership flag… (repeat to fade)

In an even bolder move, I'm tipping that very same ragtag bunch of misfits and discards down at sleepy hollow to go BACK-TO-BACK! Yes, in a move that could only be described as foolhardy, I'm retaining the faith in the fabulous felines from Corio Bay. So come on the Catters, and do not make me look a fool! Watch for 'big' (what a nickname!) Tom Hawkins to make the Cattery forget the lost Nathan Ablett, who was last seen wandering the desert trying to find himself.

The G(eelong)-Train will be ably led by the wizard that also goes by the name of Jesus, one Gary Ablett Junior, who will romp in with a glorious victory in the Brownlow medal. For the shrewd punter looking for a smokey, keep an eye on the gigantic Bomber from Devonport Jason Laycock, who will poll a few votes himself to confound bookies everywhere.

The Rising Star award will be picked up by youngster Cale Morton, of the Melbourne Dees. Bomber captain Matthew Lloyd shall win the Coleman, and Joel "Ding Dong" Selwood will pick up the Norm Smith.

The biggest disappointments will be the Hawthorn Tasmanian Hawks, who are talking premierships off the back of a two-point thriller against the Sydney thirds. I hope that Collingwood will also go bust, because as the truism says, football needs an overconfident and underachieving Maggots to remain healthy! Quietly, I'm tipping (read: 'hoping') that Joffa waves that damn jacket in the wrong bloke's face and ends up dead in a gutter somewhere on Smith Street.

Surprise packets? Watch West Coast travel along nicely sans Judd and 'good times' Cousins. They'll barely feel the loss and remain in the hunt for September glory. I also expect to see a resurgent Melbourne, who'll be molded into a competitive unit by another Sheedy protégé, and they'll be playing the sort of footy that will keep the silvertails away from the slopes and in the outer on frigid, blustery Sundays in July.

More of the same? I know that the ever-positive Coach from Partisans! is backing a Richmond flag this year (as ever), and I think that he might have something with his theory regarding their NAB cup defeat against St. Kilda. Richmond have a few issues to deal with, but fortunately for the Tigers the areas where they appear weak can be easily and clearly identified: kicking, handballing, tackling, leading, running, chasing and marking. These areas aside, the fundamentals have been well covered by Wallace. Cannily employing the same logic that has seen the Bulldog's sustained success (no player drafted over 187 centimetres, lots of outside 'receivers', 'if someone is trying to tackle you, PANIC!'), the Tigers should be fighting out for the wooden spoon again. They will have to work hard against a brittle Carlton outfit though, who are now pretty much perennial contenders for the keenest prize of all.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "stop or I'll sue" Paul Roos walk away from Sydney mid-season, as his aging stars crack up and he suddenly realises that he has no key position depth. Captain America will no doubt grasp that Ted Richards can't play FB, CHB, CHF AND FF all at once, and will retire to spend time with the wife and kids. This will no doubt involve shooting a few kodiak bears in Alaska, knocking back supersized burgers 'n fries while moaning about how the Eiffel Tower in Paris isn't as colourful as the one in Vegas and that Hilary Clinton doesn't have the BALLS to invade France to sort it out. Back on track. If Roos does quit, the Sydney mentality must prevail and the Swans will sue him. Of course, no-one dares sue Roos so he'll counter-sue. Richard Colles won't be able to believe this, so he will have to sue Mrs Roos for emotional distress. Being American, she will sue back. Sensing a quid or two might be there to be had, former Swans (and Brisbane Bear) full forward (and one-time Gold Coast meter maid) Warwick Capper will sue one of the obnoxious Roos children (GET OFF THE STAGE YOU STUPID, RUDE AND HORRIBLE CHILDREN WITH CALIFORNIAN ACCENTS, YOU DIDN'T WIN A FLAG!) and then it will all start to get confusing and messy. [Back on track part two.] Regardless, the whole football world would rejoice at the back of 'Snooze' Roos (see what I did there?), because EVERYONE is pretty much sick of this bloke's carping, whining, moaning and frankly mind-numbingly dull game plan. Whatever happens with Sydney, I predict that it will not be pretty (but things haven't been too pretty with the Swans ever since he got the job, with Barry Hall's head on telly all the time, and 19 blokes behind the ball for most of the day all trying to force another f'cking ball up).

But on the really important stuff: the Bombers. The beautiful Bombers. Essendon Football club. Those fightin' Bombers. The Windy Hill warriors. The good ole' Bombers. It is hard to know what is going to happen. The new dawn post-Sheedy will hopefully be a good one. I'll reserve judgment on Knights. Obviously, he has a sustained career full of triumph behind him. The Richmond side was tremendous throughout the star midfielder's career (1988–2002). Far more astute judges than I (how you doing Vince, hope the new job is going well, have you got a new mobile?) surmise that the Tigers of the late-80s onward were the most fearsome in the game's rich history. In most respects, the Tiger's record in this period is amazing and unsurpassed. This knowledge no doubt prompted Essendon to sack the greatest coach in the history of the game and install Knighter. So what can we expect?

I strive to be a glass half full fellow, and despite the attractiveness of striving for the very Richmond-like goal of ninth, I'm tipping the Bombers to bloom and sneak into a solid seventh spot, pushing everyone along the way (except for Adelaide, they'll no doubt thump us again). Lucas will do well, Ryder will continue to improve, and Houli, Lonergan, Dyson and Jetta will blossom with the game time. CARN THE MIGHTY DONS!

So, now to the ladder in full:

1st	Geelong	The closest we've had to dead certs since the grand Bomber outfit of 2000
2nd	St. Kilda	They'll promise big, the fans will get ahead of themselves and eventually grind to a halt come September
3rd	West Coast	The young blokes will prosper, and will stand up when needed
4th	Port Adelaide	Thereabouts
5th	Fremantle	They'll beat the beatables
6th	Adelaide	Will struggle for goals, but good down back
7th	Essendon	The beginning of something beautiful. Threepeat by 2012
8th	Melbourne	It's an even year right? Due a finals series
9th	Brisbane	Close, but not THAT close
10th	Collingwood	Remain wankers
11th	Hawthorn/Tasmania	Big talkers
12th	Sydney	On the downward slope
13th	Footscray	Come on, it's FOOTSCRAY!
14th	North Melbourne	On their way out of the comp. Good riddance
15th	Carlton	Hopefully will be joining North in the VFA in 2012 (after Pratt is imprisoned/dead)
16th	Richmond	Rebuilding for the "We'll be in Heaven for 2027" flag. Will act like they are content with the best song, colours and mascot, but we all know how much it must hurt inside.

Tassie Tigers

Tassie have lost another wicket!

Right now, Tasmania require another 22 runs with 3 wickets and 45 balls remaining.

They should do it, but Henry has turned to biting his nails!

--UPDATE--

Henry has finished his nails, and is now chewing his fingers!

Tassie need 15 runs with 3 wickets and 26 balls remaining!

--ANOTHER UPDATE--

3 runs with 1 wicket and 8 balls remaining!

Henry is now chewing his bloody stump of an arm!

It's all happening here!


--FINAL UPDATE--

The Hilfenstud has batted out the over, and Birt edges a four!!!!!!!!!!

TASMANIA WIN!

Ads that I Like #19

All right, I'll admit it, here is another ad that I don't really understand.

It's sensual without doubt, but in ways that make me feel dirty. Seriously, if you can pick the identity of the product that it promotes, pat yourself on the back. [Scroll down below the pic and highlight the white space before the text for the answer.)



Shell Industrial Lubricants, 1958. Damn, they must have been smoking some high quality grass back then!

Freakin' Sweet

There is still more than enough of the ten-year-old boy in me to think that this whole "shooting satellites with missiles" business is really, really cool.

If you don't mind, umpire!

I don’t follow rugby league (actually, I think that it is a pretty ridiculous sport), so I know little about their rules and the reputations of their referees. However, I do reckon that this is some pretty good officiating. He doesn’t lose his cool, he explains his decision in a rational manner, and both sides get what’s due to them.

Blind Spots

Whether it is students, friends, or even people I don't like very much, I'm often surprised with the lack of concern, and indeed willingness to justify or explain away, some of Fidel Castro's less savoury actions over the years. Given his recent statement about retirement, yet again there is no shortage of educated, 'enlightened', reasonably intelligent people rushing out in force to pay homage to a man who by any stretch should be no friend to rational, progressive and compassionate people.

Now, of course people are entitled (maybe even obligated) to critique the actions and activities that precipitated the Cuban revolution. However, I personally fail to understand how, in the interests of identifying and condemning the political violence, interference and the poisonous influence of western hypocrisy and hegemony in the region, that so many of the above mentioned people appear to automatically grant a free pass to a fellow and regime guilty of significant abuses against its own people.

There is an interesting discussion around this theme currently underway on at economist Brad DeLong's blog.

The recent attraction to Hugo Chavez exhibited by many who should know better similarly disturbs me. If you look at his approach to domestic and foreign relations, the guy is little more than a bully and fits the standard template of dictator/thug, not really at all a Mandela.

Puppet master?

There was an interesting little snippet from The Economist today. Apparently Nicolas Sarkozy visited the US in September, 2006 – during his stint as French interior minister – and met with just three people. Most remembered is a visit to the White House for photograph with President George Bush. Besides other members of the Bush administration, Sarkozy only met with two other American politicians: Barack Obama and John McCain.

Is Nicolas the puppet master pulling the strings? Time will tell...

New Liberal Leader

I know that Corey is yesterday's news, and this has probably been around teh internets now for AGES, but I've only seen it just now, and it made me laugh. Well worth the 1 minute and 27 seconds.

Ads that I Like #18

This one I find rather distressing. As the father of a boisterous child, I can see this sort of accident happening. Exactly why Pears feel that the image of some unfortunate, distressed child, in the throes of anguish immediately after an accident, would be a good selling point for their soap is slightly beyond my comprehension. Really, looking at that big copper bathtub, it isn't too far outside the realms of possibility to imagine a severed spine, broken legs, punctured spleen and so on.

If this is to serve as a warning to all wayward children about the hazards of fooling about at bath time, fair enough. But the frankly shocking and miserable image of a injured and distraught infant may be counterproductive in getting the wee ones into having a wash. Hell, it might even put their parents off ever giving them a bath again!

A work of genius

If you've been reading and hearing about the whole 'subprime' mess, but haven't quite come to grips with what it is really all about but would like to know, then this slide show with very dodgy pictures is what you've been waiting for.

Seriously, I think these guys should take their show on the road and explore/explain a whole host of fiscal crises for the masses.

Before and After

The lord and master of the household has had his very first haircut today. I unfortunately was unable to witness the event (damn you work!), but Jennifer has kindly forwarded on the before and after shots of the little Aussie battler, and I'm happy to say that ears remain intact, and he still has a lovely (albeit slightly neater) head of hair.

Jen also reports that he was a very good boy, and that the hairdresser was very impressed with his general demeanour, attitude and fine head of hair.

BEFORE

AFTER

Ban this filth!

Saw this story on Reuters this morning, and found it both depressing and amusing. It concerns the banning of the famous Cranach painting of Venus from a poster promoting an upcoming Royal Academy exhibition. It has been determined that the image is too risqué for the sensitivities of London's commuters.

Aesthetically, I've never been a particular fan of Cranach's nudes (they all look like they are short of a good feed, to be honest with you), but what nonsense! How many school kids would visit the top art galleries of the world? Should we censor every Ruebens and Tintoretto because it might damage one of the sensitive dears? Or are they catering to the gender or religious sensibilities of whomever? Surely the 500 year old work of a master is no more offensive than some of the pseudo-paedophilic titillations of the ilk of Calvin Klein or some other underpants/perfume/home loan ad?

It appears that the Royal Academy had the choice of placing black strips over Venus's naughty bits, but is more likely to use a cropped version.

I have chosen to display the offending painting below, so if you are weak of stomach or high of principle, please look away.

Tip of the Hat

I'm a big fan of cartography and all things maps, so am thus a big fan of the blog Geographic Travels with Catholicgauze!

Today, it points me in the direction of the new feature: the National Geographic Map of the Day. It seems to be setting itself up as an interactive engagement with history through a daily map of historical news events and milestones. Trivia, quizzes and maps. It'll keep me interested in the breaks at work.

The first map/story concerns the surrender of Confederate troops at Fort Sumter, which took place 143 years ago today.